知识点 5
Use evidence to make predictions and assess whether predictions are plausible.
A plausible prediction extends the pattern carefully, not dramatically.
核心知识
A plausible prediction follows the observed pattern without becoming more extreme than the data justify. Use the trend, then stop where the evidence stops.
深入理解
Prediction questions reward restraint.
- Find the trend: increasing, decreasing, leveling off, or mixed.
- Check how far the new condition is from the tested conditions.
- Prefer the choice that extends the pattern modestly instead of inventing a dramatic jump.
- Near-range predictions are safer than far extrapolations.
- Changed conditions weaken confidence unless the passage explains why the same pattern should continue.
- The most plausible prediction is often the least dramatic one that still fits the data.
分步讲解
- Identify the pattern in the reported results.
- Check whether the new condition is inside, near, or far beyond the tested range.
- Choose the prediction that matches the pattern without adding an unsupported causal story.
常见误解
- Assuming a trend continues forever at the same rate.
- Ignoring that a variable may level off or begin to reverse near the edge of the tested range.
- Choosing the most extreme answer because it seems to follow the pattern more strongly.
题目
示例解析
In an experiment, enzyme activity was 5 units at 20°C, 9 units at 30°C, 11 units at 40°C, and 10 units at 50°C. Based on the results, which value is the most plausible mean activity at 45°C?
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