Concept 5

Use evidence to make predictions and assess whether predictions are plausible.

A plausible prediction extends the pattern carefully, not dramatically.

Core Idea

A plausible prediction follows the observed pattern without becoming more extreme than the data justify. Use the trend, then stop where the evidence stops.

Understanding

Prediction questions reward restraint.

  1. Find the trend: increasing, decreasing, leveling off, or mixed.
  2. Check how far the new condition is from the tested conditions.
  3. Prefer the choice that extends the pattern modestly instead of inventing a dramatic jump.
  • Near-range predictions are safer than far extrapolations.
  • Changed conditions weaken confidence unless the passage explains why the same pattern should continue.
  • The most plausible prediction is often the least dramatic one that still fits the data.

Step by Step

  1. Identify the pattern in the reported results.
  2. Check whether the new condition is inside, near, or far beyond the tested range.
  3. Choose the prediction that matches the pattern without adding an unsupported causal story.

Misconceptions

  • Assuming a trend continues forever at the same rate.
  • Ignoring that a variable may level off or begin to reverse near the edge of the tested range.
  • Choosing the most extreme answer because it seems to follow the pattern more strongly.
Question

Worked Example

In an experiment, enzyme activity was 5 units at 20°C, 9 units at 30°C, 11 units at 40°C, and 10 units at 50°C. Based on the results, which value is the most plausible mean activity at 45°C?

Select an answer to see the explanation